If you’ve been following me at all you know I like a good retrospective. Admittedly, while I endeavor not to live in the past, I do enjoy a sense of nostalgia. The years put a fresh coat of paint on the past, and we tend to remember only the good, and perhaps make it a little better than it really was.
How much of what we take for granted today would have seemed like science fiction in 1984? Back then we lived in a very modern world on the cusp of the future it seemed, yet the internet didn’t exist, most people hadn’t seen a compact disc yet, lunchbox sized wireless phones were still a few years down the road, and computers still mostly utilized arcane command line interfaces.
I was thinking about this after it dawned on me that last week’s entry was yet another look backward. Then I actually got a fresh idea and thought that it might be fun to guess what we’ll be fondly looking back on 20 years from now. Which established franchises, up and coming trends, or hot today-not tomorrow fads are going to be forgotten or even more a part of our lives?
- The PC Remember those clunky computers we used to use? Big displays. Mice. Keyboards. Hard drives. Wired power supplies and network connections. Great honking boxes with loud fans. heh. All that changed with the advent of cheap OLED technology, printable micro devices and wireless power. Then again, as cheap and prolific as computer interfaces are today, wasn’t it kind of nice to sit down at the computer with a cup of coffee and type at a keyboard?
- Microsoft who? Remember when Microsoft was so firmly tied to the computer that it seemed like they had the world’s strongest monopoly? Unfortunately for them, they became so comfortable in that position that when the landscape changed they had forgotten how to compete. Of course, Windows is still likely to be the operating system on most computers you encounter, but Apple has gained back a lot of ground on the home front, and Linux finally got that percentage of market share they wanted so badly. You’re as likely to find Ubuntu running on Mom’s computer nowadays, and Slashdot Linux has been the number one server os for quite some time. Most of the world governments have come up with their own linux-based operating systems, and many corporations have followed suit. Microsoft isn’t dead by any means, but they sure aren’t the giant they used to be. Hey, remember when they used to make a game console? heh. If only they hadn’t fought the Google takeover they might have maintained their market dominance.
- Linux Remember when there were 200 linux distros? Well there still are, but 150 of them are based on Ubuntu. Ubuntu became what Redhat had wanted to be, and Ubuntu is now practically synonymous with linux. KDE is still around, but the only distro that uses it is Unity, the distro that formed from the merger of Suse, Mandriva, Redhat and Sun. The last nail in KDE’s coffin was when Compiz and Gnome merged, creating a modern standard for the development community to rally behind, and linux distros really started to become quite polished from an interface and integration perspective following that move. I said way back in 2008 that the linux desktop was finally starting to catch up with the pros, and now, in many ways, my Ubuntu system outpaces my Mac. Apple still is the best for innovation and new approaches to human-computer interaction, which is why they hold a 50% market share compared to the 5% they enjoyed back in 2008.
- Google Wiped out Yahoo, failed to takeover Microsoft. Still number one on the internet, but their halfhearted attempt at a Google OS sputtered. I think it would have took off, if the Microsoft thing would have worked out, but instead Google OS was just another Ubuntu-based linux distro. yawn. I still don’t see why they picked up Ebay, but they must be turning some kind of profit on it.
- AV I must admit, I really miss the old days when it comes to home theater. Yes, the advent of the OLED revolution means we all have really great looking super high resolution displays any size we want on any wall of our homes, but there was something fun about the old equipment and picking out components for your system. Back in 2009 I wondered how long it would be before conventional display technology was replaced by the next step, and here we are 20 years later with displays, that at their core, really haven’t changed that much except for being smaller and better looking. I did check out one of Panasonic’s Holo3D systems at a store a while back, and it was cool but I felt like I was going to throw up after a couple of minutes.
- Gaming I had thought, back in 2008, that the next step in gaming was going to be something that replaced conventional hardware and involved you to a degree that the best comparison was the matrix from those old Wachowski Bros. movies. Fortunately for us it didn’t come, yet. I still believe that when we have artificially generated entertainment capable of that degree of realism that a significant portion of the population will simply check out of the real world altogether. Then again, that may be preferable to these same idiots getting tanked and wrapping their cars around light poles, or worse, hurting innocent bystanders with their stupidity.
It’s amazing to look back. 20 years ago I was too young to have anything to look back to, but at 42 I have the perspective that age imparts. The scary thing is that 20 years from now when we’ll be able to tell if any of the above postulations have come to pass or if they were only mildly amusing speculations, I will be 62 years old. 42 isn’t bad for a guy who lived so hard and so fast that I never thought I’d see 30, but now that I’ve passed it, I really want to stick around for another 20.
Ultimately, the most important point is that while reminiscence and speculation are fun, don’t ever forget how your life goes by in the blink of an eye. It’s precious. Every last minute of it, and if you don’t live in the present you’ll blow the whole thing.
